Temer’s maiden trip abroad as Brazil’s President went off to a somewhat rocky start. While he and his key advisors explained to journalists in China that political instability was now a thing of the past, news of anti-Temer protests in several Brazilian cities flickered on TV screens around the world. In addition, Brazil’s new government was taken by surprise that Venezuela, Cuba and Ecuador were not the only countries to criticize the impeachment. Bolivia, and, most surprisingly, moderate Uruguay called Rousseff’s ouster “unjust.” How to deal with the regional fallout is a delicate challenge, particularly at a time when relaunching Mercosur is one of the government’s declared goals.
And yet, Temer’s main challenge the coming weeks – during which he’ll visit New York, Buenos Aires and Goa for the upcoming BRICS Summit – is not to convince the world that the impeachment proceedings were legitimate. As became clear during the G20 powwow in Hangzhou, foreign leaders recognize Temer as the legitimate leader of the world’s fourth largest democracy, even if the impeachment proceedings left a bitter aftertaste. Rather, he must convince international leaders, observers and investors that he is the right man to steer Brazil through its most severe economic crisis in its history and one of the worst political crises in decades.
There are some reasons to believe Temer may succeed. Considering his predecessor’s remarkable economic ineptitude, lack of political savviness and complete disregard for diplomacy, almost anything will be seen as an improvement by international observers. Temer has assembled an economic team that knows how to talk to investors, and the credentials of Henrique Meirelles, Brazil’s economic czar, are beyond reproach. In addition, the new Foreign Minister José Serra, a political heavyweight, can be seen as a guarantee that foreign policy will no longer be neglected, as it has been the case under Rousseff (even though criticism is mounting that he is too focused on his dream of running for president in 2018, neglecting his current job). Finally, the successful organization of the Rio Olympics and the conclusion of impeachment proceedings may be seen as the beginning of Brazil’s recovery. While Temer’s room for maneuver and legitimacy as interim president were limited, he now enjoys more political leeway to push through much-needed reforms. After all, after early trouble that involved the departure of several high-profile ministers, most analysts now believe Temer will be able to serve out Rousseff’s term – reflecting a degree of political stability Brazil has not enjoyed for the past 18 months.
And yet, despite all this, Temer will struggle enormously to create a new narrative about Brazil’s political and economic prospects. To begin with, the new President will govern for a mere 28 months, leaving him with extremely little time to do what is needed – namely, cutting public spending, reforming Brazil’s byzantine tax system, its unfair pension system, and establishing a regulatory system that will facilitate fixing the country’s antiquated infrastructure. In practice, few political decisions will be taken between now and municipal elections in October. By late 2017, the field of the presidential race will emerge (and Serra and Meirelles will have to step down to run for office), so the time for actual reform is limited to little more than 14 months. Considering the depth of the economic crisis – Brazil is still one of the worst performing economies in the world – it becomes clear that a full recovery will take years, not months.
Corruption scandals and resignations of ministers, as seen in the first weeks of Temer’s interim government, would take away additional precious time. While some believe the new President will be able to contain the Lava Jato investigations, public interest is likely to keep up the pressure. Indeed, if recent allegations that José Serra received illegal campaign donations by Odebrecht are proven true, Temer may be pressured to dismiss his Foreign Minister, which would leave the government without a politically experienced top diplomat. Indeed, it would be far from surprising if Temer lost several ministers along the way due to the ongoing investigations.
While the international community does not question Temer’s legitimacy, the fact that he took office without winning an election will deprive him of the domestic and international honeymoon his three predecessors enjoyed. While Maurício Macri beamed with confidence and was everybody’s darling at the World Economic Forum earlier this year, Temer was received in a more neutral fashion at the G20 – and Obama did, naturally, not call him “my man”, as he did with Lula in 2009. That will matter at home, too. Contrary to his predecessors, Temer begins his time in office with extremely low approval ratings and part of the population alienated. Finally, contrary to both Lula and Dilma Rousseff, Temer will face a cohesive and energized opposition that will seek to depict Temer as an usurper intent on reverting many of the advances made in 13 years of PT rule. Unless his economic measures will have a quick impact, Temer will struggle to win this battle of narratives. Early mistakes, such as his decision to appoint an all-male all-white cabinet, dramatically reduce the number of people (even among those critical of the PT) willing to openly support Temer.
At first glance, most of these issues seem to be unrelated to diplomacy. And yet, Temer’s international diplomatic offensive is tremendously important to shape the way global leaders and opinion makers evaluate the new government, affecting investments, ratings and other countries’ willingness to negotiate trade agreements. In the same way, experienced leaders can use diplomacy to produce good news and countless positive front page pictures on newspapers – such as the photograph Temer’s statesmanlike shake-hands with Xi Jinping, which circulated widely during the recent G20 summit. In hard times, these can make a difference, particularly when there not much celebrate at home.
Read also:
Course for foreign diplomats: Contemporary Brazil: Politics, Economics and Society
The Brazil-Bolivia dispute, a decade on
Entrevista de história oral com Nelson Jobim
Photo credit: Evaristo Sá/AFP
