Marking Venezuela’s application for full Mercosur membership in 2006; it was formally admitted in 2012.
BY OLIVER STUENKEL | SEPTEMBER 7, 2016
Maduro may not be long for the presidency, but that doesn’t mean Venezuela’s foreign policy is changing.
http://americasquarterly.org/content/why-mercosur-stuck-venezuela
Venezuela’s September 1 demonstrations, in which as many as a million people took to the streets of Caracas to demand a change in government, were certainly impressive. But were they effective? If the goal was to fundamentally alter the country’s political direction, the answer is probably “no.”
Despite the buzz generated by this month’s protests (dubbed “The Great Taking of Caracas” by the opposition), the chances of President Nicolás Maduro losing his job this year are slim. A recall referendum held before January 10, if won by the opposition, would lead to early general elections and a likely opposition victory. But after January 10, a recall would merely replace Maduro with the vice president of his choosing through the end of his term in January 2019.
The latter represents a much more palatable alternative for Venezuela’s leadership than allowing for politically risky early elections; a recall referendum that replaces the president but keeps the governing United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) in power could actually be a convenient opportunity for the party to get rid of Maduro, who is seen..
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Read also:
Venezuela on the Edge: Can the Region Help?
How Latin America Should Address the Crisis in Venezuela (Americas Quarterly)
Book review: “Dragon in the Tropics: Venezuela and the Legacy of Hugo Chavez”
Photo credit: Ricardo Stuckert/PR
