1. International Politics in 2017: Ten Predictions
The spread of post-truth politics, a divided West in a Post-Western World, a rocky US-China relationship, growing Chinese influence, the end of cheap money, Western influence dwindles in the Middle East, a global crackdown on human rights accelerates, cyber attacks go global, the Taliban returns in Afghanistan and black swans.
2. TPP vs. RCEP: Trade and the tussle for regional influence in Asia
China, which is excluded from the countries negotiating the TPP, has responded by promoting the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which excludes the United States, and which would promote rapprochement between Beijing and Tokyo. The tussle for regional influence between the United States and China has thus also taken hold of the debate about trade agreements.
3. A Fragmented West in a Post-Western World
Trump’s victory further weakens the West in global affairs. With the United States now in retreat and the emergence of a global leadership vacuum, Beijing faces a world of opportunities.
4. Brazil’s top 10 foreign policy challenges in 2016
Brazil’s economy is in tatters and no foreign policy in the world could fix it without profound domestic reforms — and yet, a wisely designed foreign policy can make an important contribution. That implies reviving Mercosur and actively pursuing free-trade agreements, making BNDES’ foreign lending more transparent and effective, and clearly articulating to international investors how Brazil seeks to get our of the economic mess.
5. How Trump Benefits China in Latin America (Americas Quarterly)
The timing was perfect, and the symbolism could not have been stronger. A mere week after Donald Trump’s upset victory stunned the world, Xi Jinping traveled to Lima for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit and projected China as a bastion of stability, predictability and openness. With the U.S. increasingly skeptical of globalization, Xi promised that China would stand up for free trade. Faced with an emerging global leadership vacuum, Beijing was quick to recognize a window of opportunity. Compared with the abrasive U.S. president-elect, the Chinese president, with his avuncular charm, seemed to have a soothing effect on the gathering in the Peruvian capital.
6. Brazil: Towards a New Foreign Policy?
On May 18, International Relations scholars across Brazil gathered in front of their computer screens as the newly minted Foreign Minister José Serra took to the podium at Itamaraty Palace for the first time. His 19-minute long speech, during which he presented the “guidelines of the New Brazilian Foreign Policy”, marked the most significant change in Brazil’s international strategy in years. Indeed, in comparison to his colleagues in the one-week old Temer cabinet, Serra most clearly sought to show how his policies would differ from those under Lula and Dilma Rousseff.
7. Why Brazil is right to negotiate a refugee deal with the European Union
While Brazil is largely seen as a source of problems nowadays, this week the country generated a positive reaction abroad when it emerged that negotiations are underway to bring more refugees to South America’s largest nation. Brazil, which maintains an open-door policy and has already granted asylum to several thousand Syrians, is discussing ways to offer a home specifically to refugees who are already in Europe or who are on their way there — provided that European governments pay for their integration in Brazil. The move is laudable and far-sighted for three reasons.
8. Brazil’s Retreat from the International Stage Continues
Despite some cautious optimism during the first days of the Temer government, there are worrisome signs that Brazil’s retreat from the global stage, initiated around 2012 during Dilma Rousseff’s first term, is set to continue. Brazil’s stance on three security-related issues — UN Security Council reform, the situation in Venezuela and the global refugee crisis — suggest South America’s largest country will continue to be a bystander when key challenges to global stability are discussed. That is bad news for Brazil’s strategic interests, global governance, and the future of democracy.
9. The Challenges Awaiting Temer’s Top Diplomat
Whoever will be chosen by incoming President Michel Temer to head Brazil’s Foreign Ministry faces a set of daunting challenges. Above all, he (sadly, there is not a single woman among the candidates) must reassure the international community that Brazil’s crisis is under control and that the new government has the means and the legitimacy needed to get Brazil out of its mess. Along with the Chief of Staff (who must deliver a majority in Congress) the Minister of Finance and President of the Central Bank (who must design a viable economic strategy), Temer’s Foreign Minister will inevitably play a key role in the new President’s cabinet: regaining international investor confidence by orchestrating a global communication strategy will be crucial to stop the currently dominant sensation of gloom.
10. How Brazil’s Crisis Is Bleeding into the Rest of South America (Americas Quarterly)
Yet as Brazil is consumed by the worst political and economic crisis in decades, the country has turned inward. This has contributed to a regional power vacuum and a sense of paralysis when it comes to devising regional approaches to South America’s most pressing challenges. For example, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s increasingly blatant disregard for even basic democratic standards has seen a less meaningful regional reaction because of Brazil’s problems. Given Brazil’s dominant role in South America – representing roughly half its GDP, population and territory – its travails are inevitably bad news for the continent.
Read also:
The Thirteen Most-Read Post-Western World Articles of 2013
The ten most popular articles in 2014: “Brazilian foreign policy: Game over?” and more
Photo credit: Alexei Druzhinin/TASS
