This article was originally published in Portuguese for O Globo
https://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/artigo-apesar-dos-pesares-so-nos-resta-torcer-para-xi-jinping-22459321
Since the 1990s, China’s Communist Party was able to build a system of orderly succession at the top, an accomplishment that many authoritarian regimes around the world failed to do. As a consequence, transitions in dictatorships often led to instability or even their collapse, while China has projected stability for the past thirty years. With the abolition of term limits, the Communist Party leadership changing its successful formula. The most plausible explanation is that Xi Jinping and his allies believe that the risk of instability and the threats their enemies pose are so serious that an extreme concentration of power is necessary to defend themselves and push through reforms in the coming years. Xi’s ability is both proof of his remarkable power over all levels of government, but also a sign of how worried he is to keep its enemies at bay.
With the constitutional amendment to abolish the two-term limit for China’s president and vice president, China’s political situation is thus likely to remain stable in the short-term – it is now seen as very likely that Xi Jinping will stay on for a third term in 2023. Comparisons to strongmen like Putin, Mao or Mugabe, all of whom oversaw decline, however, are simplistic and unhelpful – China’s economic resources and its bureaucratic capacity make it likely that it will continue its rise and become the world’s most powerful nation in the next years. Still, in the long-term, it is undeniable that the move increases risk.
Any kind of political instability or overt power struggle in Beijing after Xi Jinping – a more likely scenario in the absence of institutionalized succession mechanisms — would send shock waves across the global economy. After all, China has become so central to the global system that everybody, including Washington, has an active interest in continued stability in China. Brazil, too, has become so dependent on China that political uncertainty there would be a key threat to Brazil’s economic trajectory.
Xi’s consolidation points to another disadvantage for countries around the world, including Brazil. Over the past years, Chinese politics have become less transparent and even more difficult to understand or predict than at any point in recent history. Repression is most likely to increase. Precisely at a moment when Brazil desperately needs to train sinologists and political analysts capable of gathering information about China in order to manage its growing dependence, their task suddenly has become far harder. Brazil’s response should be to dramatically increase its efforts to produce a group of China specialists who circulate with ease among Chinese decision-makers. Any other strategy would be highly irresponsible.
It may not be a popular thing to say, but Xi’s decision to tighten his grip on power may also produce benefits for the international community. With his enemies weakened at home, Xi will find it easier to fill the global power vacuum and provide global public goods. With the United States retreating from debates about most global challenges – such as migration, climate change and protectionism – we need China to step up and provide leadership on such issues, crucial for Brazil’s development. Some may not like it, but, for our own good, we should wish Xi success.
