Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrea’s President Isaias Afewerki at an official dinner in Asmara. Credit: Yemane Gebremeskel, Minister of Information, Eritrea.
1. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has the historic chance to democratize Ethiopia
Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is implementing the most radical liberalization in Africa’s second-most-populous nation, freeing political prisoners and journalists, opening up the economy and making peace with neighboring Eritrea. While the first Oromo Prime Minister still faces dramatic challenges, including ethnic violence, separatist movements and questions about economic stability, there is a good chance Ethiopia will take further steps in the right direction, and see the rise of a freer media, civil society and a more democratic public debate about how to face the country’s many challenges — a welcome contrast to the global crisis democracy finds itself in. It helps that Ahmed is a more accessible and popular leader than his predecessors — yet he must resist the temptations of the Erdogan or Xi-style personality cult that has recently emerged, and opt for step-by-step reform.
2. Brexit may not happen, after all
With no Brexit plan able to garner a majority in parliament, the two most extreme scenarios — ‘hard Brexit’ or ‘no Brexit’ become ever more likely. While it is impossible to predict the outcome, a growing number of political analysts think (and hope) that, in the end, a second referendum may take place, which would most likely produce the opposite result due to the demographic change that has taken place since 2016. While that would be far from enough to overcome the deep divisions within British society — in fact, frustrated Brexiteers would probably ask for a third referendum — ‘no Brexit’ would be a triumph of reason and pragmatism after two years of shocking incompetence and irresponsibility by policy makers in London.
3. Armenians kicked out the corrupt elites and Nikol Pashinyan can clean up politics
“A Putinesque potentate was ejected, and no no one was killed. (…) An ancient and often misruled nation in a turbulent region has a chance of democracy and renewal,” wrote The Economist when justifying why it had chosen Armenia as its ‘Country of the Year 2018′. Just like in Ethiopia, there is some risk of hero-worship, after Pashinyan successfully led the Velvet Revolution that forced Serzh Sargsyan to resign in April. Pashinyan’s mandate is impressive — in the capital, more than 80% voted for him during the recent parliamentary elections — yet the structural challenges he faces are equally daunting, including a troublesome relationship with Turkey, Azerbaijan, and the bilateral trade relationship to Iran in trouble due to renewed US sanctions. Still, the newcomer has renewed optimism and Armenians’ faith in democracy. Even if he cannot fulfill all his promises, expect some good news to come out of Armenia in 2019.
4. Angela Merkel and Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer will project stability across Europe
Angela Merkel achieved a remarkable feat which proved elusive for many great politicians: she successfully picked her successor at the dusk of her remarkable career. If she stays on another two years, she’ll be the longest-serving head of government in the history of the German Federal Republic, overtaking Helmut Kohl, who served from 1982 to 1998. Kramp-Karrenbauer’s ideas are largely similar to those of Merkel, assuring that, at least in 2019, the country will maintain its centrist course and commitment to the European Union. Plus, provided that the CDU wins the next elections, it’ll be the first power transition in German political history from one woman to another.
5. US civil society resists Donald Trump, inspiring others around the world
Donald Trump has damaged US democracy, but compared to other aspiring autocrats, he has not succeeded. Debates at US universities remain as vibrant as ever, newspapers such as the New York Times have thrived, and the judiciary and key advisors have been able to push back against the president’s worst authoritarian impulses. Contrary to what many (myself included) expected back in 2016, U.S. soft power – i.e., its attractiveness to outside observers – remains, in many ways, unaffected by Trump. In fact, in some respects, the U.S. president has made the country even more appealing, inspiring activists, academics and journalists around the world.
6. Vizcarra is exercising low-profile, but highly effective leadership in Peru
Peru’s low-profile president Martín Vizcarra is perhaps the region’s most popular one. In a country where heads of state usually suffer from abysmal approval ratings, the down-to-earth caretaker president enjoys the support of well above 50% of Peruvians — a remarkable achievement considering that merely a year ago, few people had ever heard of him. The former Ambassador to Canada likes local politics and frequently travels the country, which helps him build consensus, for example when mining companies and local communities clash. Voters recently approved government proposals to implement tighter rules for political campaign financing. With a bit of luck, Vizcarra may be able to implement further important reforms before his term ends in 2021.
7. Global poverty levels can be expected to continue to fall
Despite growing inequality in many countries, economic rights are also advancing, and never in human history has the percentage of those living in extreme poverty been smaller. Continued economic growth in China and India will lift millions out of poverty. The Post-Western World will be – largely thanks to the economic catch up in the developing world – more prosperous, with far lower levels of poverty on a global scale, than any other previous order. In 2019, that process will continue, with global growth expected to remain on 2017 levels.
8. Immigrants around the world will continue to help their host societies prosper
Immigrants make societies not only more diverse, but also more dynamic, entrepreneurial and prosperous. The United States serves as a powerful example, where a brief look at the statistics shows the massive impact immigrants have on the US economy’s capacity to innovate and generate jobs: some 40% of Fortune 500 firms were founded by immigrants or their children. So were the firms behind seven of the ten most valuable brands in the world. Although the foreign-born are only an eighth of the US population, a quarter of high-tech start-ups have an immigrant founder. Apple, Google, AT&T, Budweiser, Colgate, eBay, General Electric, IBM and McDonalds, owe their origin to a founder who was an immigrant or the child of an immigrant. Steve Jobs, the co-founder of Apple, is a child of an immigrant parent from Syria. Walt Disney also was the child of an immigrant (from Canada), as well as the founders of Oracle (Russia and Iran), IBM (Germany), Clorox (Ireland), Boeing (Germany), 3M (Canada) and Home Depot (Russia). In 2019, migrants, both those with and without proper documentation, will continue to enrich their host societies both culturally and economically.
9. Cyril Ramaphosa will help South Africa slowly recover from the Zuma mess
Can Ramaphosa save South Africa?, international observers asked when Zuma’s disastrous presidency finally ended. The answer is almost certainly no — the country’s problems are structural and no president in the world could single-handedly overcome years of corruption and neglect. Yet Ramaphosa can help South Africa take the first steps for the country to get back on track, beginning by restoring citizens’ faith in democracy and convincing investors that the country has an economic future. Unemployment is above 33% when including those who have given up looking for work, the murder rate and emigration are rising, and few dare to be optimistic about South Africa these days. Yet the president may be able to push through sensible reforms. Ramaphosa recently made a critical anti-corruption appointment, naming Shamila Batohi, an experienced prosecutor, to rebuild the national prosecuting authority, which lost credibility under Zuma. These are small but meaningful steps to help one of Africa’s largest economies fulfill its vast potential.
10. Iceland’s Prime Minister Katrin Jakobsdottir is taking the global lead in the realm of gender equality
Under 42-year old Katrin Jakobsdottir, Iceland is leading a global movement towards gender equality. This year, a law was passed that requires companies and government agencies to prove they are paying men and women equally. Iceland ranks as the most progressive country when it comes to closing the gender gap, and the country has become a global reference for policy makers from around the world who seek to emulate the island’s success. Expect Jakobsdottir to take further meaningful steps in the coming months.
And a bonus:
11. Eritrea’s President Isaias Afewerki may slowly open up one of the world’ s most impoverished nations
Together with Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Ahmed, Eritrea’s President Isaias has ended a decades-old conflict in 2018 and initiated a process of overcoming past animosities, which killed around 70,000 people. In addition to eliminating a factor of instability in the region, the move may also help open up a nation that remains one of the world’s most opaque regimes. There are now regular flights between the two countries, and Ahmed may mediate in a border conflict between Eritrea and Djibouti. In July, Eritrea established diplomatic ties with Somalia, after 15 years of hostilities. Since Eritrea’s government used the Ethiopian threat to justify its relentless repression and isolation, optimists cautiously see a possibility of change, even though Eritreans still flee their home country en masse. At the same time, the number of tourists visiting Asmara, the capital, to see its Modernist architecture, has grown and is likely to increase further if the peace deal holds. If you get the chance, go visit.
