BY OLIVER STUENKEL | JUNE 19, 2019
Diplomats across the region have begun to regard Brazil as a source of instability.
https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/bolsonaros-chaotic-foreign-policy
When it comes to foreign policy, Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro and his closest advisors’ many controversial ideas, ranging from a fear of “globalism” and skepticism of multilateral institutions, such as the United Nations, to the conviction that climate change is little more than a marxist plot were already a cause of apprehension for many regional diplomats. And the sheer venting of the possibility of Brazilian support for a U.S. military intervention in Venezuela set off alarm bells in foreign ministries across the region.
Yet what most worries South American diplomats lately are not Bolsonaro’s ideas per se, but the fact that Brazilian foreign policy — and presidential diplomacy in particular — has become largely unpredictable. There is a growing consensus from Santiago to Bogotá that decisions in Brasília are the product of internal power struggles rather than strategic calculus — a worrisome situation for neighbors, considering that Brazil’s active participation is crucial to advance any kind of regional initiative.
Close to celebrating six months in office, the Brazilian government has no clear policy vis-à-vis Mercosur, a Uruguayan policy maker privately complained — except for occasional hints by Guedes and others that they were unhappy with the status quo. Bolsonaro’s recent visit to Buenos Aires seemed to sum up the lack of coherence that has become the defining element of Brazil’s international engagement since January. The visit happened after a series of snubs against Argentina, unprecedented since…
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