04 July 2019, Brazil, Curitiba: “Lula Livre”, is written on the poster behind Alberto Fernandez (M.), candidate for the presidency in Argentina, who visited the former president of Brazil Lula da Silva in prison. Photo: Henry Milleo/dpa (Photo by Henry Milleo/picture alliance via Getty Images)
https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/trouble-ahead-alberto-fernandez-and-jair-bolsonaro
BY OLIVER STUENKEL | OCTOBER 28, 2019
Mercosur’s future hangs in the balance as Argentina and Brazil’s relationship faces its most difficult moment in years.
Just hours before election results showed him winning Argentina’s presidential election on October 27, Alberto Fernández took to Twitter to wish a happy birthday to Brazil’s former President Inácio Lula da Silva. In the photo, Fernández made the “Free Lula” sign, a highly provocative gesture seemed directed at Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro. In his victory speech that night, Fernández again called for Lula to go free. Both moves foreshadow what is likely to be a complicated relationship between Fernández and Bolsonaro.
After initially calling Bolsonaro “racist, misogynist and violent,” Fernández had in recent weeks resisted the temptation of responding to a series of provocations from Bolsonaro. Even as it became increasingly clear that Fernández would succeed Mauricio Macri as president of Argentina, Bolsonaro doubled down on his criticism of Argentina’s left. The latest happened during his tour of Asia, when Bolsonaro threatened to “exclude” Argentina from the Mercosur trade block should Fernández not agree to go along with rapid trade liberalization. That isn’t a real threat since member countries cannot be excluded from the group unless they violate democratic norms, but Bolsonaro’s rhetoric has been consistent since Fernández defeated Macri handily in August’s primary elections.
“We run the risk (…) of an invasion by Argentine [economic migrants]” Bolsonaro told local journalists at the time; Fernández and former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner were “leftist bandits,” he warned.
The odds are thus that Bolsonaro and Fernández will struggle to develop a pragmatic working relationship over the coming years, despite the fact that both countries depend on each other. After all, Brazil is Argentina’s most important trading partner and a recent study suggests the crisis in Argentina will shave off 0.5% of Brazil’s GDP this year.
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