https://www.thedialogue.org/analysis/how-will-lula-shake-up-brazils-political-landscape/
Justice Fachin’s decision is unlikely to be overturned, and Lula is already a de-facto candidate for the 2022 presidential election and, in all likelihood, a competitive one at that. Lula had been leading the polls when his conviction and prison sentence in 2018 turned Bolsonaro into the front-runner. Since he took office, Bolsonaro has not faced an organized opposition, and no other politician has been able to fill the vacuum Lula left behind, in part because center-right parties such as the PSDB, Democratas and Novo decided not to unequivocally distance themselves from the president. Bolsonaro, too, has sought to weaken center-right parties as he prefers a more polarized campaign against a left-wing candidate. This dynamic has narrowed the corridor for centrist candidates, and São Paulo state Governor João Doria—long seen as Bolsonaro’s main challenger—has already signaled he may prefer to run for re-election rather than seeking the presidency. While a lot can change until then, the most likely scenario at this stage is thus a runoff between Lula and Bolsonaro. Lula can be…
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