BY OLIVER STUENKEL
JANUARY 6, 2022
Amid fears Bolsonaro may try to prevent a peaceful transition, generals emerge as key power brokers.
https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/all-eyes-on-brazils-military-as-election-approaches/
For the first time since Brazil transitioned to democracy in the late 1980s, a cloud of uncertainty is hovering over the upcoming presidential election in the world’s fifth-largest democracy. Ten months ahead of the first round on October 2, political analysts not only wonder who will win, but also whether President Bolsonaro will attempt to obstruct the transition of power if he loses to former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, as polls currently suggest.
A quick concession and congratulatory call by a defeated Bolsonaro to his opponent, as Argentine incumbent Mauricio Macri did in 2019, can almost certainly be ruled out. Even optimists do not believe Bolsonaro would appear at Lula’s inaugural ceremony to hand over the presidential sash. A best-case scenario might be Argentina’s somewhat turbulent transition of power from Cristina Fernández de Kirchner to Macri in 2015: After a public disagreement between the…
