Americas Quarterly Brazil English

Brazil Heads to Runoff Election (Americas Quarterly)

https://americasquarterly.org/article/reaction-brazil-heads-to-runoff-election/

The first-round vote ended with a margin much slimmer than expected between the main candidates, President Jair Bolsonaro and former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

While Lula won the first round by a smaller margin than expected, he remains the favorite in the runoff. Since democratization, all candidates who won the first round have proceeded to win the second round, and Bolsonaro would have to pull off a historic comeback to win reelection—not impossible, but still unlikely. Still, in order to secure victory in the second round, Lula can be expected to intensify his efforts to reach out to centrists. If he wins, the Workers Party (PT), and in particular the left wing of the party, will have far less influence than during his government from 2003-2010.

Lula would also face formidable resistance in Congress, making major progress on several fronts (such as the fight against deforestation) less likely. The Bolsonaro campaign will attempt to use the momentum of yesterday’s stronger than expected showing to catch up, arguing that a second presidential mandate—this time with broader support in Congress—would allow him to implement…

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SOBRE

Oliver Stuenkel

Oliver Della Costa Stuenkel é analista político, autor, palestrante e professor na Escola de Relações Internacionais da Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV) em São Paulo. Ele também é pesquisador no Carnegie Endowment em Washington DC e no Instituto de Política Pública Global (GPPi) ​​em Berlim, e colunista do Estadão e da revista Americas Quarterly. Sua pesquisa concentra-se na geopolítica, nas potências emergentes, na política latino-americana e no papel do Brasil no mundo. Ele é o autor de vários livros sobre política internacional, como The BRICS and the Future of Global Order (Lexington) e Post-Western World: How emerging powers are remaking world order (Polity). Ele atualmente escreve um livro sobre a competição tecnológica entre a China e os Estados Unidos.

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