ANALYSIS – 29 SEPTEMBER 2022
That Russia’s war in Ukraine is beginning to reshape the global order is a broadly accepted claim. Oliver Stuenkel, Brazilian expert and Associate Professor of International Relations at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV), shares his take on the emergence of a post-Western world for Institut Montaigne’s series Ukraine Shifting the World Order. Due to Brazil’s economic ties to poles of power, he argues the country will not be able to avoid maintaining relations both with Beijing and Moscow, and with the West.
When Russia invaded Crimea in 2014, Western leaders imposed sanctions on the invaders that were the clumsy result of the commitment not to let the annexation go entirely unpunished – but careful enough not to let them affect the economic interests of European nations with extensive trade relations with Russia. This may have contributed to Putin’s calculus that when he would attack the rest of Ukraine at a later stage, countries like Germany, dependent on Russian gas, would probably oppose more incisive economic measures against Moscow. Still, before announcing the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Putin sought to increase..
