Brasília hopes to position itself as a constructive and autonomous voice as the international system grows more contested
This piece is part of a Carnegie series examining the impacts of Trump’s first 100 days in office.
For Brazil, U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to the White House presents at least two significant risks and one strategic opportunity in the bilateral relationship and the evolving global order. These risks are primarily political and economic, while the opportunity reflects Brazil’s long-standing ambition to position itself as an autonomous actor in a multipolar world.
The first risk is political contagion. Brazil will hold its next presidential election in October 2026, and Trump’s reemergence has emboldened far-right actors domestically. U.S. politics is highly visible in Brazilian public discourse, and recent political events in Brazil—such as the 2018 election of far-right populist Jair Bolsonaro, his refusal to concede defeat in 2022, and the January 2023 storming of government buildings by his supporters—closely mirrored dynamics in the United States. Trump-inspired rhetoric, including attacks on higher education and the so-called deep state, has heavily influenced the Brazilian right. Bolsonaro, now barred from running due to a conviction by Brazil’s electoral court, has called for “support from abroad” to save Brazil from what he claims is a descent into dictatorship, as he faces coup-related charges that could lead to imprisonment ahead of the elections.
Bolsonaro and his allies see Trump’s return as a chance to rebuild legitimacy and gain international backing. Eduardo Bolsonaro, the former president’s son, recently stepped down from his seat in the National Congress and moved to the United States—possibly to avoid legal troubles, but more likely to strengthen ties with U.S. far-right networks. Should Trump or high-profile figures such as Elon Musk intervene in Brazil’s electoral process, as Musk has recently done in Germany, the bilateral relationship could suffer severe strain.
The second risk is economic. Although some sectors of the Brazilian economy could benefit from the U.S.-China trade war—agribusiness may increase exports to China, and Brazil’s footwear sector, the largest outside Asia, could gain access to U.S. markets—the downsides could be numerous. Trump’s new tariffs are likely to redirect Chinese exports away from the United States and toward countries such as Brazil, flooding local markets with cheaper goods. This could deepen Brazil’s ongoing..
