How to Understand Brazil’s Stance on Venezuela’s Election (Americas Quarterly)
Lula’s policy is an attempt to exert influence over Brazil’s neighbor, but the recent past suggests this may have limited effect. https://americasquarterly.org/article/how-to-understand-brazils-stance-on-venezuelas-election/ In the aftermath of what looks to have been a blatantly fraudulent election in Venezuela on July 28, the administration of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has decided to join Mexico and Colombia […]
Lula’s Unforced Errors Are Taking a Toll on the World’s Goodwill (Americas Quarterly)
BY OLIVER STUENKEL MARCH 27, 2024 Brazil’s president has restored his country’s international reputation, but his provocative gestures are bedeviling progress on his top goals. Lula’s Unforced Errors Are Taking a Toll on the World’s Goodwill SÃO PAULO — In early 2022, with little more than eight months to go before Brazil’s presidential elections, Jair […]
Brazil’s Polarization Is Here to Stay Even As Politicians Have Mostly Dialed Down the Rhetoric (Americas Quarterly)
Brazil’s Polarization Is Here to Stay Even As Politicians Have (Mostly) Dialed Down the Rhetoric The political debate in Latin America’s largest democracy looks less destructive than it used to be. SÃO PAULO — Over recent days, political debates in Brazil briefly seemed to have returned to the heyday of polarization before the 2022 presidential […]
The Real Impact of Maduro’s Guyana Referendum (Americas Quarterly)
The Real Impact of Maduro’s Guyana Referendum SÃO PAULO — “There’s one thing South America does not need right now: trouble,” replied Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, when a reporter asked him about Venezuela’s December 3 referendum on seizing the Essequibo region of Guyana. “If there’s one thing we need to grow and improve the lives of […]
The Israel-Hamas War Is Inflaming Polarization in Latin America (Americas Quarterly)
The Israel-Hamas War Is Inflaming Polarization in Latin America BY OLIVER STUENKEL NOVEMBER 16, 2023 The region’s leaders have been far more critical of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza than peers in Europe and North America. SÃO PAULO—While Latin America has the privilege of being far away from the world’s geopolitical hotspots, the region has not escaped […]
Republican Threats on Mexico Could Carry a Huge Cost (Americas Quarterly)
Republican Threats on Mexico Could Carry a Huge Cost BY OLIVER STUENKEL SEPTEMBER 28, 2023 Even if it’s just rhetoric, Republican candidates’ discussion of military force against Mexican cartels risks souring relations across the region. The idea that the U.S. should use military force against drug cartels in Mexico has become increasingly popular among legislators and candidates from […]
How BRICS Expansion Will Impact South America (Americas Quarterly)
BY OLIVER STUENKEL AUGUST 24, 2023 The BRICS transformation into a Beijing-led alliance poses a challenge for Brazil and Argentina. https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/how-brics-expansion-will-impact-south-america/ On the occasion of the 15th BRICS Leaders Summit in Johannesburg this week, the current members—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa—invited Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to join the bloc […]
AQ Podcast: Lula’s Foreign Policy and What It Means for Latin America
AQ Podcast: Lula’s Foreign Policy and What It Means for Latin America APRIL 26, 2023 Oliver Stuenkel on Brazil’s potential to be a regional leader, and recent controversies including comments over Ukraine The return of Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is a potential game-changer for Latin America. No other leader in the region […]
Under Lula, Brazil Can Take On Regional Leadership. Will It? (Americas Quarterly)
BY OLIVER STUENKEL APRIL 25, 2023 A diplomatic heavy hitter is back at the helm of Latin America’s largest country—but the path to an influential international role is full of obstacles. https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/under-lula-brazil-can-take-on-regional-leadership-will-it/ SÃO PAULO — “Brazil is back,” President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva told a roaring crowd at the climate summit COP27 in Egypt in November last year. […]
Courting Lula, China Seeks to Show It Has More to Offer than the U.S. (Americas Quarterly)
BY OLIVER STUENKEL APRIL 12, 2023 The Brazilian president’s trip to Beijing will be shaped by numerous agreements and investment promises. – https://americasquarterly.org/article/courting-lula-china-seeks-to-show-it-has-more-to-offer-than-the-u-s/ – SÃO PAULO — China knows a thing or two about rolling out the red carpet and offering lavish treatment to foreign visitors. And it will be no different when Xi Jinping hosts […]
At CELAC Summit, Left-Wing Leaders May Not Find Agreement (Americas Quarterly)
BY OLIVER STUENKEL JANUARY 23, 2023 With the region’s leaders gathering in Buenos Aires, disagreements threaten to spoil chances for collaboration. SÃO PAULO — An upcoming international summit in Buenos Aires is set to herald the return of Brazil to the Latin American fold, after a four-year absence—and signal the reemergence of the Argentina-Brazil axis in regional politics. […]
Brazil’s Capital Lives Its January Invasion (Americas Quarterly)
After numerous analysts had warned, over the past years, of the risks of a “Brazilian January 6” in the aftermath of a Lula victory, the invasion of Brazil’s Congress—along with the Supreme Court and the presidential palace—does not come as a surprise. Perhaps the only unexpected element was the timing: Rather than between the runoff […]
A Second Pink Tide Might Not Unify Latin America (Americas Quarterly)
https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/a-second-pink-tide-might-not-unify-latin-america/ Divisions over a candidate for a multilateral post show that obstacles to cooperation still remain, even with more ideological alignment. BY OLIVER STUENKEL NOVEMBER 17, 2022 SÃO PAULO — “Our region can do more,” 11 former presidents and former foreign ministers from Latin America recently wrote in an open letter to current heads […]
What If Jair Bolsonaro Wins? (Americas Quarterly)
https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/what-if-jair-bolsonaro-wins/ OCTOBER 25, 2022 Once deemed unlikely, reelection would allow Brazil’s president to double down on his cultural agenda and bring an uncertain outlook for foreign policy and the economy. SÃO PAULO — With polls tightening, a Bolsonaro victory on October 30 — seen as extremely unlikely until recently — no longer seems unthinkable. Indeed, […]
Brazil Heads to Runoff Election (Americas Quarterly)
https://americasquarterly.org/article/reaction-brazil-heads-to-runoff-election/ The first-round vote ended with a margin much slimmer than expected between the main candidates, President Jair Bolsonaro and former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. While Lula won the first round by a smaller margin than expected, he remains the favorite in the runoff. Since democratization, all candidates who won the first round […]
Brazil’s Exodus of People Is A Bad Omen (Americas Quarterly)
Photo by Horacio Villalobos#Corbis/Corbis via Getty Images) https://americasquarterly.org/article/brazils-intensifying-brain-drain-is-a-bad-omen/ SÃO PAULO – At a recent dinner party in São Paulo, a friend who is an executive at a technology company mentioned that he and his wife are planning to move to Lisbon. “The public schools in Portugal are great, it’s totally safe, and I can […]