How Noboa Avoided the Incumbency Trap (Foreign Policy)
Latin American voters tend to reject ruling parties and politicians. What did Ecuador’s president do differently? By Oliver Stuenkel, an associate professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in São Paulo, and Margot Treadwell, a junior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. How Noboa Avoided the Incumbency Trap April 17, 2025, […]
BRICS Expansion and the Future of World Order: The View From Brazil (Carnegie Endowment)
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2025/03/brics-expansion-and-the-future-of-world-order-perspectives-from-member-states-partners-and-aspirants Brazil derives tangible benefits from BRICS membership—above all, prestige, geopolitical influence, greater proximity to China, and an “insurance” against diplomatic isolation. These four main benefits explain why Brazil has enthusiastically embraced the group since its inception in 2006. First, in the view of Brazilian policymakers, membership came with considerable prestige. Joining the bloc implicitly […]
Brazil’s Presidential Transition: A Chance for Re-engagement (European Democracy Hub)
https://europeandemocracyhub.epd.eu/projects/european-responses-to-moments-of-democratic-opportunity/
Brazil sees opportunity in a multipolar order (Chatham House)
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/03/competing-visions-international-order/06-brazil-sees-opportunity-multipolar-order Multipolarity may suit Brazil’s preference for strategic flexibility and its claim to a greater global role – but the country faces difficult choices ahead when navigating great power competition. Brazil’s strategic outlook is profoundly shaped by the confluence of the country’s size – it is the world’s fifth-largest country by area and boasts the seventh-largest population – and sense of vulnerability, the latter symbolized by its relatively […]
Will Trump’s Unpredictable Foreign Policy Boost BRICS? (Foreign Policy)
Will Trump’s Unpredictable Foreign Policy Boost BRICS? If Turkey and Saudi Arabia follow Indonesia in joining the bloc, it could gain more geopolitical heft. By Oliver Stuenkel, an associate professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in São Paulo, and Margot Treadwell, a junior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. As […]
How Does Uruguay Do It? (Foreign Policy)
How Does Uruguay Do It? Strong civic engagement and low inequality have helped the country avoid the political polarization sweeping the globe. On March 1, Yamandú Orsi will take office as the next president of Uruguay. Orsi, of the center-left Frente Amplio coalition, defeated the ruling center-right coalition’s nominee in a runoff last November. Unlike in many […]
Expert takeaways from the Munich Security Conference, 2025 (Belfer Center)
https://www.belfercenter.org/quick-take/msc2025
Trump Can’t Bully Latin America Without Consequences (Foreign Policy)
Aggressive U.S. foreign policy could push regional governments into China’s arms. Trump Can’t Bully Latin America Without Consequences U.S. President Donald Trump celebrated an apparent victory on Sunday when he coerced Colombian President Gustavo Petro to allow the resumption of U.S. deportation flights to the country. Petro had previously announced on X that he had turned away two […]
Why Is Saudi Arabia Hedging Its BRICS Invite? (Carnegie)
https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2024/11/brics-saudi-arabia-hedging-why?lang=en Riyadh’s fence-sitting strategy reflects its desire to keep all doors open. Others may follow its lead. by Oliver Stuenkel and Margot Treadwell Published on November 21, 2024 At the BRICS summit last month, one leader was noticeably absent from the family photo of assembled leaders: Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman. Over a year after the […]
G20 Summit 2024: How the World is Reacting to Trump (Belfer Center)
https://www.belfercenter.org/research-analysis/g20-summit-2024-how-world-reacting-trump The G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro, bringing together national leaders, heads of international organizations and regional blocs such as the European Union and the African Union, discussed the world’s most pressing challenges – ranging from climate change, inequality, armed conflict and global governance reform. The meetings provided a number of relevant insights […]
Why Electoral Violence Starts—and How It Can End (Foreign Policy)
Why Electoral Violence Starts—and How It Can End As Americans prepare to vote in a tense presidential contest, these countries show a way out of political polarization. November 1, 2024 By Robert A. Pape, Dushni Weerakoon, Oliver Stuenkel, Adem Kassie Abebe, and Daniel Finn
The U.S. Shouldn’t Dismiss BRICS Challenge (Carnegie Politika)
BRICS is emerging as a sandbox for experimentation with various non-USD instruments, including payment systems, cryptocurrencies, digitalized mechanisms for trade in national currencies or through barter, and hubs for commodities trading outside of dollar dominance. https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/10/brics-summit-us-challenge?lang=en by Alexander Gabuev and Oliver Stuenkel Published on October 29, 2024 It’s easy to dismiss BRICS. The dominant view in the U.S. […]
BRICS: A Shared Discontent (Belfer Center)
https://www.belfercenter.org/research-analysis/brics-shared-discontent The 16th BRICS Summit, which took place in the Russian city of Kazan, proved to be a symbolic diplomatic victory for Vladimir Putin. It showcased that the West’s efforts to isolate Russia have failed to resonate with much of the Global South, where Western sanctions against Moscow are widely criticized, and where many countries […]
Brazil’s BRICS Balancing Act Is Getting Harder (Americas Quarterly)
By Oliver Stuenkel October 21, 2024 The bloc’s expansion is amplifying its anti-Western tendencies, creating strategic risks for Brazil. https://americasquarterly.org/article/brazils-brics-balancing-act-is-getting-harder/ Since Brazil co-founded the BRICS in 2009, Brazilian analysts and politicians have largely agreed that membership brought tangible benefits to the country—including closer ties to China. But as this year’s summit approaches, the costs are adding […]
Trump Has His Own Monroe Doctrine (Foreign Policy)
As president, his aggressive stance toward the region led many countries to warm to China. Trump Has His Own Monroe Doctrine Ahead of November’s U.S. presidential election, several right-wing Latin American leaders have been open about their support for Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump. Among them are Argentine President Javier Milei, Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, and former […]
The Battle for the BRICS (Foreign Affairs)
Why the Future of the Bloc Will Shape Global Order https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/battle-brics By Alexander Gabuev and Oliver Stuenkel September 24, 2024 In late October, the group of countries known as the BRICS will convene in the Russian city of Kazan for its annual summit. The meeting is set to be a moment of triumph for its […]