How Noboa Avoided the Incumbency Trap (Foreign Policy)
Latin American voters tend to reject ruling parties and politicians. What did Ecuador’s president do differently? By Oliver Stuenkel, an associate professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in São Paulo, and Margot Treadwell, a junior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. How Noboa Avoided the Incumbency Trap April 17, 2025, […]
How Does Uruguay Do It? (Foreign Policy)
How Does Uruguay Do It? Strong civic engagement and low inequality have helped the country avoid the political polarization sweeping the globe. On March 1, Yamandú Orsi will take office as the next president of Uruguay. Orsi, of the center-left Frente Amplio coalition, defeated the ruling center-right coalition’s nominee in a runoff last November. Unlike in many […]
Trump Can’t Bully Latin America Without Consequences (Foreign Policy)
Aggressive U.S. foreign policy could push regional governments into China’s arms. Trump Can’t Bully Latin America Without Consequences U.S. President Donald Trump celebrated an apparent victory on Sunday when he coerced Colombian President Gustavo Petro to allow the resumption of U.S. deportation flights to the country. Petro had previously announced on X that he had turned away two […]
Trump Has His Own Monroe Doctrine (Foreign Policy)
As president, his aggressive stance toward the region led many countries to warm to China. Trump Has His Own Monroe Doctrine Ahead of November’s U.S. presidential election, several right-wing Latin American leaders have been open about their support for Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump. Among them are Argentine President Javier Milei, Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, and former […]
Maduro’s Resilience Reflects the West’s Limited Influence in Venezuela (Carnegie)
https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2024/08/maduro-venezuela-election-west-limited-influence?lang=en The president has dug in and is waiting for global attention to move elsewhere Global leaders have reacted in three different ways to the overtly fraudulent elections that Venezuela’s authoritarian president, Nicolás Maduro, claims to have won on July 28, despite ample evidence to the contrary. Based on vote tallies provided by the opposition […]
Escalada autoritária na Venezuela revela impotência do Brasil (Estadão)
https://www.estadao.com.br/internacional/oliver-stuenkel/escalada-autoritaria-na-venezuela-revela-impotencia-do-brasil/ Debate sobre estratégia de Lula diante das ‘eleições’ venezuelanas ignora que postura brasileira dificilmente fará diferença A resposta do governo Lula às “eleições” venezuelanas em 28 de julho – mais um capítulo no longo e previsível colapso político e econômico do país nas últimas décadas – tem gerado debates calorosos nas redes sociais no […]
‘Eleições’ é termo inadequado para descrever manobra farsesca de Nicolás Maduro (Estadão)
No poder há mais de uma década, ditador venezuelano usa “processo eleitoral” para dividir opositores https://www.estadao.com.br/internacional/oliver-stuenkel/na-venezuela-eleicoes-e-termo-inadequado-para-descrever-manobra-farsesca-de-nicolas-maduro/ É explícita a interferência do governo de Nicolás Maduro nas eleições presidenciais venezuelanas para garantir a “vitória” do governante. A própria escolha da data – 28 de julho, aniversário do ex-presidente Hugo Chávez, morto em 2013 – revela a […]
Latin America in 2024: Five Trends to Watch (Americas Quarterly)
BY OLIVER STUENKEL JANUARY 8, 2024 Despite mediocre growth, political risk is declining and cautious optimism is increasingly warranted. Latin America in 2024: Five Trends to Watch SÃO PAULO — The year 2023 began with an armed insurrection in Brazil’s capital when thousands of supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro stormed Congress, the Supreme Court, and the presidential […]
The Real Impact of Maduro’s Guyana Referendum (Americas Quarterly)
The Real Impact of Maduro’s Guyana Referendum SÃO PAULO — “There’s one thing South America does not need right now: trouble,” replied Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, when a reporter asked him about Venezuela’s December 3 referendum on seizing the Essequibo region of Guyana. “If there’s one thing we need to grow and improve the lives of […]
Argentina In the Emerging World Order (Carnegie)
CHRISTOPHER S. CHIVVIS, OLIVER STUENKEL, BEATRIX GEAGHAN‑BREINER NOVEMBER 22, 2023 In recent years, Buenos Aires has sought stronger ties with China and membership in the BRICS. But with the recent election of far-right president Javier Milei, Argentina’s approach to the world may change. Argentina strives for a foreign policy of equidistance and generally resents perceived attempts by […]
Javier Milei’s Next Challenge: Governing Argentina (Foreign Policy)
Javier Milei’s Next Challenge: Governing Argentina The messianic president-elect may struggle to implement many of his most radical ideas. By Oliver Stuenkel, an associate professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in São Paulo. NOVEMBER 21, 2023 The radical libertarian candidate Javier Milei surfed an anti-establishment wave to comfortably win Argentina’s highly polarized […]
The Odds Are Stacked Against Argentina’s Next President (Carnegie)
NOVEMBER 16, 2023 COMMENTARY https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/11/16/odds-are-stacked-against-argentina-s-next-president-pub-91035 On Sunday, Argentine voters will elect their next president in a runoff campaign that has been the most divisive in decades. Sergio Massa, Argentina’s current economy minister for the current center-left government and leader of the Union of the Fatherland coalition, will face Javier Milei, an anti-establishment and far-right libertarian […]
The Israel-Hamas War Is Inflaming Polarization in Latin America (Americas Quarterly)
The Israel-Hamas War Is Inflaming Polarization in Latin America BY OLIVER STUENKEL NOVEMBER 16, 2023 The region’s leaders have been far more critical of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza than peers in Europe and North America. SÃO PAULO—While Latin America has the privilege of being far away from the world’s geopolitical hotspots, the region has not escaped […]
Republican Threats on Mexico Could Carry a Huge Cost (Americas Quarterly)
Republican Threats on Mexico Could Carry a Huge Cost BY OLIVER STUENKEL SEPTEMBER 28, 2023 Even if it’s just rhetoric, Republican candidates’ discussion of military force against Mexican cartels risks souring relations across the region. The idea that the U.S. should use military force against drug cartels in Mexico has become increasingly popular among legislators and candidates from […]
Europa verspielt Einfluss in Südamerika (Handelsblatt)
Seit Jahrzehnten wird Europa für die Staaten der Region unwichtiger. Das Mercosur-Freihandelsabkommen ist wohl die letzte Chance, diesen Prozess aufzuhalten. Kommentar von Oliver Stuenkel 28.09.2023 https://www.handelsblatt.com/meinung/global-challenges/gastkommentar-global-challenges-europa-verspielt-einfluss-in-suedamerika/29413074.html Kurz vor der Jahrtausendwende, im Juni 1999, trafen sich Regierungschefs der Europäischen Union, Lateinamerikas und der Karibik in Rio de Janeiro zum ersten interregionalen Gipfel und unterzeichneten unter großer Aufmerksamkeit eine […]
Javier Milei é reflexo da atração por candidatos anti-establishment em tempos de crise (Estadão)
Presidenciável argentino usa velha retórica ‘nós contra eles’ e demonização de outros governos como estratégia para mobilizar seus seguidores https://www.estadao.com.br/internacional/colunas/javier-milei-e-reflexo-da-atracao-por-candidatos-anti-establishment-em-tempos-de-crise/ “Não vamos nos alinhar com os comunistas.” Foi assim que Javier Milei, líder nas pesquisas menos de um mês antes das eleições presidenciais argentinas, explicou por que ele, se eleito, rejeitaria o convite ao país […]