Uncategorized
The EU-Mercosur Deal Is a Hedge Against the Donroe Doctrine (Foreign Policy)
As the United States pursues gunboat diplomacy, Europe and South America are choosing cooperation instead. Last Friday, the European Union green-lit a trade agreement with the South American customs union Mercosur. The deal paves the way for the creation of one of the world’s largest free trade zones in terms of population, encompassing more than […]
The U.S. Plan for Venezuela Has a Precedent. It’s Not Good (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
Lessons from early twentieth-century “fiscal receivership” efforts should be a warning for Venezuela. Last week, after the U.S. military operation in Venezuela toppled President Nicolás Maduro, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a three-phase plan for administering the country’s vast oil reserves from Washington. Beyond overseeing production and sales, Rubio also suggested that the United […]
How Trump’s Venezuela Gamble Will Transform Latin America (TIME)
When U.S. President Donald Trump announced the capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro after American military strikes in Caracas last Saturday, he quickly hinted that Venezuela was not an isolated case. Trump also threatened Mexico, Colombia, and Cuba. Senior U.S. officials echoed this rhetoric. The message was unmistakable: toppling Latin American leaders by force was back […]
A Strategic Break for South America (Foreign Policy)
In the wake of Maduro’s capture, governments across the continent are facing uncomfortable questions about deterrence and autonomy. Early on Saturday morning, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the United States had attacked Venezuela and captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. It is hard to exaggerate the historical significance of these events. Whatever one […]
Trump não conseguirá afastar a América do Sul da China (Estadão)
Até mesmo presidentes pró-Trump sabem que relações econômicas com Pequim são imprescindíveis A recente Estratégia de Segurança Nacional dos Estados Unidos simboliza uma inflexão histórica na forma como Washington lida com a América Latina. Após cerca de 35 anos de relações relativamente cooperativas, Donald Trump retoma, de forma explícita, a lógica da Doutrina Monroe ao […]
Por que a Europa está numa encruzilhada histórica? (Estadão)
O modelo europeu mostra-se inadequado para um mundo marcado por rivalidades geopolíticas Depois de séculos exercendo um papel central na ordem internacional e projetando poder para além de suas fronteiras, a Europa encontra-se na defensiva, tentando administrar e conter o peso de China, Estados Unidos e Rússia dentro e ao redor de seu território. Esse […]
The New Democracy Defenders (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
With U.S. democracy support receding, progressive leaders from Spain and Latin America have pioneered a global initiative to combat backsliding. Can it succeed? As U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration have dismantled international democracy support over the past ten months—gutting aid programs, withdrawing from multilateral agreements, and transforming the U.S. from a standard-bearer of […]
Multi-Alignment as Strategy: How Brazil Navigates Between Washington, Beijing, and the Global South (Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs)
Brazil’s Role and Importance as a Middle Power Brazil’s national anthem declares the country “a giant by nature.” Brazilian politicians, diplomats, and pundits further this narrative, arguing that the country’s influence stems not merely from its actions but from inherent characteristics, such as its size, population, and natural resources. This self-perception helps explain why many […]
BRICS Is Missing Its Chance (Foreign Affairs)
United by Trump’s Hostility, but Too Divided to Seize the Moment This year, the BRICS—a ten-country group whose first five members were Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—has gained a renewed sense of purpose thanks to one catalyst: the United States. With U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the bloc looks, […]
Volta da Doutrina Monroe fortalecerá Pequim na América Latina (Estadão)
Falta de objetivos claros torna estratégia de Trump para a Venezuela ainda mais arriscada A movimentação militar dos Estados Unidos no Caribe nas últimas semanas reacendeu na América Latina um temor que muitos julgavam superado: a Doutrina Monroe. Anunciada em 1823 e reforçada pelo Corolário Roosevelt em 1904, essa política guiou numerosas intervenções dos EUA […]
Colapso iminente do Mali deve criar um novo santuário do terrorismo global (Estadão)
Fracasso de França e Rússia em estabilizar o país africano acelerou a consolidação jihadista no coração do Sahel, que se estende entre o Saara, ao norte, e as savanas, ao sul Nos últimos dias, o Mali voltou a ocupar as manchetes por motivos alarmantes. O grupo jihadista Jama’at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), ligado à […]
Milei’s Midterm Miracle (Foreign Policy)
Did Argentine voters endorse their president’s economic overhaul—or cow to Trump’s threats? On Sunday, Argentine President Javier Milei’s far-right political movement achieved a strong showing in the country’s midterm elections. His La Libertad Avanza (LLA) party secured nearly 41 percent of the national vote, a plurality. Roughly half of the lower house and one-third of […]
What’s Next: U.S.-Brazil Ties (Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs)
U.S. and Brazilian politics have exhibited uncanny similarities over the past decade, marked by growing polarization, the rise of right-wing populism and the crisis of moderate conservatism. President Jair Bolsonaro’s ascent reflected both a long-standing Latin American tradition of nationalist, military-linked leadership and President Donald Trump’s transnational influence on populist movements. Trump’s 2016 victory helped […]
Onda global de protestos da Geração Z enfrenta velhos dilemas (Estadão)
Multidões nas ruas podem derrubar governos, mas nem sempre trazem mudanças duradouras. A chamada Geração Z — composta por jovens nascidos entre meados dos anos 1990 e início da década de 2010 e a primeira a crescer inteiramente conectada à internet — vem ocupando o centro das manchetes em numerosos países do mundo, como Peru, […]
O trumpismo se consolida na política japonesa (Estadão)
A ascensão de Sanae Takaichi é reflexo da crise global do conservadorismo moderado. Sanae Takaichi venceu a disputa no Partido Liberal Democrata (PLD) e, salvo manobra improvável no Parlamento, será a primeira mulher a chefiar o governo japonês. Sua vitória marca a consolidação de uma nova gramática política no Japão: menos arranjos de centro, mais […]
U.S. Political Interventionism Under Trump (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
Despite promising not to lecture other countries on “how to live,” the Trump administration is intervening with increasing frequency and force in the political affairs of other countries. Immediately upon taking power, President Donald Trump and his team set about pulling the United States away from its longtime stance as a supporter of democracy globally. […]